Bitcoin rally may hinge on stabilization of long-term holder supply

Onchain analysis indicates Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) underwent one of the most aggressive distribution phases on record in 2025, and that selling pressure may now be fading — a shift that could outline the next bullish period for BTC. Long-term holders distributed roughly $300 billion in BTC in 2025, a historic supply reset.

Nearly $300 billion that had been dormant for over a year re-entered circulation, and the 30 days between Nov. 15 and Dec. 14, 2025 marked one of the heaviest LTH distribution periods in more than five years. LTH supply briefly recovered to 15.4 million BTC in June before collapsing to 13.5 million BTC by December, and the largest-ever 30-day distribution peak of 1.14 million BTC occurred in November; price weakness began in October but most of the selling followed later, which the analysis said suggests capitulation rather than orderly profit-taking.

The report places the 2025 selling in historical context. Sharp LTH supply declines have tended to occur near cycle peaks or during structural transitions rather than at the start of new downtrends: in 2018 LTH supply fell from 13 million BTC to 12 million BTC with a 30-day distribution peak of 1.08 million BTC in December, and price bottomed near $3,500 in February 2019 before rallying to $11,000 by mid-year.

Key Topics

Crypto, Bitcoin, Long-term Holders, Onchain Data, Lth Supply