Bitcoin Showing Signs of a New Bear Market, Metrics Suggest

Bitcoin has extended a recent pullback. While the correction has been orderly, underlying data points to deeper structural stress and a complex picture for investors. Historically, similar patterns have coincided with early bear market transitions. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio’s 90-day moving average has fallen into the 1–2 range.

That compression — toward a level where realized losses begin to dominate — reflects subdued profit-taking and limited liquidity rotation. Structural weakness may persist until the ratio reclaims levels above 2. Network activity also shows warning signs. Unique BTC addresses making transactions are down 42% versus five years ago and new BTC addresses have declined by 47%, highlighting slowing user participation despite price resilience.

A durable recovery would likely require rising active addresses and accelerating wallet creation. Price action remains fragile.

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