Bitcoin traders cautious as US shutdown risk and Fed uncertainty loom

Bitcoin traders are showing caution as markets weigh the risk of a US federal government shutdown and a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy. Bitcoin rose 1.5% after a retest of the $86,000 level on Sunday, while the week includes corporate earnings from global tech firms and the Fed's policy decision on Wednesday.

Derivatives metrics point to neutral-to-bearish sentiment: the annualized BTC futures premium (basis rate) was 5% on Monday, a level the article says barely compensates for longer settlement and typically exceeds 10% when traders are bullish. The 30-day options delta skew reached 12%, indicating puts trade at a premium and reflecting reluctance to hold downside exposure; the piece notes the skew last reached similar levels on Dec.

1, when Bitcoin fell from $91,500 to $83,900. Meanwhile, gold surged to a record $5,100 and the S&P 500 climbed 0.6% on Monday. The article also highlights broader macro moves: the Federal Reserve Bank of New York signalled a potential rescue of the Japanese yen, the US Dollar Index fell below 97 for the first time in four months, and 5-year US Treasury yields topped 3.8% versus Europe and Japan.

It notes Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mandate ends in April and that President Donald Trump has said the next chair should focus on trimming Fed funds rates.

Key Topics

Crypto, Bitcoin, Us Government Shutdown, Federal Reserve, Gold, Jerome Powell