Cardano faces February test: 90% breakout possible if ADA clears $0.543

BeInCrypto’s analysis says Cardano (ADA) enters February at an uncomfortable but interesting point: January is expected to close higher with ADA up about 5.48% month-to-date, yet momentum into February is fading and the historical February median return is negative (-9.50%). Technically, ADA has been compressing inside a falling wedge on the two-day chart since late October.

Measuring the wedge’s widest section projects a potential upside of roughly 90%—a maximum projection, not a forecast, and only if the structure breaks upward. Momentum shows a conditional bullish signal: between November 21 and January 25 the price made a lower low while the RSI made a higher low, suggesting sellers may be losing control.

Structure and momentum are aligning, but confirmation requires a break above the wedge’s upper trendline. Spot market data undercuts conviction. January saw mostly steady net buying that supported the monthly gain, but the largest spot inflows this cycle came in August near $40.5 million; January’s largest near-term move was a $3 million outflow.

The Chaikin Money Flow trended higher between January 5 and 25 but remains below zero (August peaked around 0.16), indicating improvement without strong force. Derivatives positioning could provide the catalyst. Gate’s ADA perpetual market shows about $166.7 million in short leverage versus roughly $89 million in long leverage—shorts nearly double longs.

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