Consumer spending, not AI, was largest driver of US GDP in 2025

Businessinsider reports MRB Partners published a January report finding that personal consumption — not AI investment — was the largest contributor to US GDP growth in 2025. The report contradicted the popular view that AI was the main engine of growth and warned against claims that its "narrowly concentrated" and "extremely vulnerable" gains would sink the whole economy if they faltered.

Bhide wrote, "In short, without an AI boom, there would have certainly been less GDP growth last year, but there would also be fewer imports, so that overall real growth would still have been decent." The main GDP categories cited were personal consumption, private domestic investment, government spending, and net exports, and the report said much AI infrastructure is imported and therefore does not add to GDP.

MRB Partners found AI was an important secondary driver, mainly through software investment, while the contribution from data centers was described as "negligible." The report also highlighted broader risks: the AI bubble concern is tied to stock-market exposure and retirement funds, noting the eight most valuable US public companies — including Nvidia, Alphabet, and Apple — are heavily invested in AI and together are worth about $22 trillion.

Key Topics

Business, Personal Consumption, Mrb Partners, Prajakta Bhide, Artificial Intelligence, Data Centers