Dollar Bearish Bets Hit 14-Year High: What It Means for Crypto

Short positioning in the US dollar has reached its highest level since January 2012, the Bank of America foreign exchange and rates sentiment survey shows. The US Dollar Index is down 1.3% year to date, and overall dollar exposure has fallen below the lows of April 2025 as fund managers grow more pessimistic.

A January 2026 nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair did not revive demand for the dollar, and survey respondents point to signs of US labor market weakness as the main downside risk; a tweet cited job losses of -306,000 in 2023, -818,000 in 2024 and -1,029,000 in 2025, with roughly 2.5 million jobs erased since 2019.

The dollar slid 9.4% in 2025 and fell to 95.5 on January 27, its lowest level since February 2022, before recovering to 97.08. Market participants are split on what comes next: some traders see another leg lower — one trader, Donny, forecast a move below 96 — while the Long Investor outlined a longer-term structural decline toward the 52–60 range in the 2030s.

United States

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