Ethereum faces February crossroads as whales accumulate but ETFs stay cautious

Ethereum enters February 2026 at a critical crossroads after losing nearly 7% in January, with large wallets accumulating near key support while spot-ETH ETF flows remain mixed, according to the BeInCrypto analysis. Seasonality is conflicted: historically February has a median gain near +15% since 2016, but January’s weakness echoes 2025, when ETH fell 32%–37% in February.

On the two-day chart ETH sits inside a wide falling wedge that could project a roughly 60% move on a confirmed breakout, while RSI near 37 suggests fading selling pressure but no clear reversal yet. On-chain metrics paint a mixed rebound case. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is about 0.19 — the “hope–fear” zone — which previously aligned with rebounds (June 2025 saw NUPL ~0.17 and ETH rose from ~2,200 to ~4,800).

But NUPL remains well above negative levels that marked full capitulation (around −0.22 in April 2025). Long-term holder accumulation was positive in January but fell from ~338,700 ETH on Jan. 18 to ~151,600 ETH by Jan. 29, signaling weaker conviction. Whales have been adding exposure — whale-held supply rose from ~101.18 million ETH to ~105.16 million ETH in January (nearly 4 million ETH) — yet ETF activity was inconsistent, with strong inflow days offset by late-January withdrawals exceeding 70,000 ETH equivalents.

ethereum price targets, spot-eth etf flows, whale accumulation january, nupl 0.19, rsi near 37, falling wedge setup, long-term holder accumulation, hodler net position change, reclaim $3,000, resistance $3,340, late-january etf withdrawals, february seasonality gains, beincrypto analysis