HBAR Flashes 40% Warning, but Positioning Suggests a Different Outcome

Hedera (HBAR) has dropped about 3.5% in the past 24 hours while holding nearly 6% weekly gains, reflecting a growing conflict between buyers and sellers. A familiar warning sign has reappeared — the same signal recently triggered a 40%+ crash — but trader positioning, demand strength and technical support suggest the outcome may differ this time.

HBAR is trading inside a falling wedge on the daily chart, while a hidden bearish divergence formed between November 23 and February 17: the price made a lower high as the RSI made a higher high. That same divergence first appeared between November 23 and January 14 and was followed by a sharp 44% crash, which raises the risk of another pullback.

Structural factors now look different. Open interest is around $61 million, lower than the previous peak near $68 million, and funding rates remain negative instead of positive.

hedera, hbar, falling wedge, bearish divergence, rsi, open interest, funding rates, trader positioning, demand strength, pullback risk