How Bitcoin Could React If the US Strikes Iran

Bitcoin traded near $66,400 on February 19, holding close to $66,000 after days of volatility as fears of a possible US military strike on Iran grew. Multiple American outlets say US military officials told President Donald Trump that strike options are ready and could be executed as early as this weekend; the Pentagon has moved additional aircraft and a second carrier strike group toward the Middle East while Iran has held exercises and warned it would retaliate.

The market has already shown strain: Bitcoin fell from cycle highs above $100,000 to the mid‑$60,000 range, and short‑term holders are selling at a loss—the Short‑Term Holder SOPR sits below 1. At the same time, Bitcoin’s short‑term Sharpe ratio has dropped to extremely negative levels, a pattern that has historically appeared during periods of market stress.

United States

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