IMF Raises 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.3% as AI Investment Offsets Tariff Drag

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that it has raised its forecast for global growth in 2026, projecting world output will hold at 3.3 percent for a third consecutive year as surging investment in artificial intelligence and other technology helps offset rising protectionism.

In its World Economic Outlook the I.M.F. said the 3.3 percent projection is 0.2 percentage points higher than its October estimate, with growth expected to slow to 3.2 percent in 2027 and global inflation to ease to 3.8 percent from 4.1 percent in 2025. "The global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started," Mr.

Gourinchas, the fund's chief economist, told reporters. Most of the upgrade stems from stronger projections for the United States and China. The I.M.F. said U.S. output is being supported by a boom in technology investment and is expected to grow 2.4 percent in 2026, up from 2.1 percent in 2025, while China is projected to expand 4.5 percent this year, below 2025's 5 percent but above the fund's October estimate of 4.2 percent.

The fund put growth in advanced economies at 1.8 percent and output in emerging and developing economies just above 4 percent, and warned that a pullback in A.I. investment, flaring trade tensions or a global conflict disrupting energy prices could threaten the outlook. The I.M.F.

Key Topics

Business, International Monetary Fund, China, Artificial Intelligence, Tariffs, Federal Reserve