Messari says KYC is needed to curb insider trading on prediction markets

A research analyst at blockchain intelligence firm Messari said preventing insider trading on prediction markets is realistically possible only on platforms that apply Know Your Customer (KYC) measures, as concerns rise after a series of high‑profile geopolitical bets. Austin Weiler told Cointelegraph that KYC platforms can restrict access upfront to specific markets and bar state actors from political or geopolitical markets, which “adds an important obstacle and raises enforcement standards.” He warned this would not fully eliminate abuse because insiders can still share information with third parties.

For fully onchain, non‑KYC markets he said enforcement is extremely challenging or “nearly impossible,” since wallets not linked to real‑world identities make attribution difficult. Trading volumes in prediction markets hit almost $6 billion by mid‑January 2026, according to Dune.

KYC policies vary across platforms: Kalshi enforces KYC under its CFTC‑regulated model and may request identification; Polymarket applies KYC to US users while non‑US versions reportedly operate without mandatory checks and can be accessed via VPN, according to social media reports; Opinion provides no public information on KYC.

Cointelegraph contacted Kalshi, Polymarket and Opinion but had not received responses at the time of publication.

Key Topics

Crypto, Prediction Markets, Kyc, Messari, Austin Weiler, Kalshi