Model backs Bears to cover vs Rams in 2026 divisional round

Cbssports reports the 2026 NFL divisional round continues Sunday with Patriots vs. Texans at 3 p.m. ET and Rams vs. Bears at 6:30 p.m. ET, and SportsLine's computer model is backing the Chicago Bears to cover at +4.5 in the Chicago home game. The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times and has been up well over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated picks while running a 53-37 record on those picks dating back to 2024, projects Chicago to prevail against the spread well over 50% of the time.

Context in the source material notes underdogs went 4-2 against the spread on Wild Card Weekend; New England is listed at -3.5 (40.5) and has a 1-6 run versus the line when it has a rest advantage while Houston will be without Nico Collins (concussion). Los Angeles is a 4.5-point road favorite (O/U 48.5) but was the lone Wild Card team that lost versus the spread despite an outright win and has dropped two straight ATS on the road.

The model highlights defensive splits as part of its backing: Chicago has allowed 16.3 points over its last four home games, while the Rams allowed 31 points in their Wild Card win—tied for the Panthers' most scored all season—and 28.3 points over their last seven games.

Key Topics

Sports, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Nico Collins