Monero's 65% Drop May Not Be Over as $150 Risk Looms

Monero is down about 2% over the past 24 hours and nearly 31% over the past month. Since peaking near $799 in mid-January, XMR has already fallen more than 65%, plunging to $276 before rebounding toward the $327–$330 area. On the daily chart, XMR is trading inside a bear flag formed by the drop from $799 to $276.

That consolidation often precedes further declines; a breakdown below the flag's lower boundary would likely trigger another major leg lower. Exponential moving averages are moving into bearish alignment, with the 50-day EMA approaching the 100-day EMA and the 20-day EMA drifting toward the 200-day EMA—crossovers that would confirm weakening momentum if they occur while the price tests the flag's lower trendline.

Exchange flows flipped from net outflows of about $7.1 million in the week ending February 2 to net inflows of roughly $768,000 by the week ending February 9, suggesting rebounds have been used to return supply to exchanges rather than accumulate.

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