Most tariff costs fall on U.S. firms and consumers, Fed study finds

Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University found that through November 2025 roughly 90 percent of the economic burden from the administration’s tariffs fell on U.S. companies and consumers. Mr. Trump has repeatedly said foreign countries were paying the tariffs, but the research shows the costs are largely being shouldered domestically.

The study examined who ultimately pays import taxes — the “incidence” of tariffs — noting that the importer of record typically pays the duty up front and can then pass the cost along by raising prices or negotiating with suppliers. Mr. Trump wrote in a Wall Street Journal op‑ed that “the data shows that the burden, or ‘incidence,’ of the tariffs has fallen overwhelmingly on foreign producers and middlemen, including large corporations that are not from the U.S.” and argued some exporters had to “eat” the tariffs to avoid worse losses.

United States, New York

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