PENGU up 18% since Jan 25 as whales add 23.6% — reversal or failure?

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has rebounded about 18% since Jan. 25 while trading inside a falling wedge and showing a bullish RSI divergence, but plunging social sentiment and skewed leverage raise the risk that the move could fail. Technically, PENGU printed a lower low in price between Dec.

1 and Jan. 25 while the RSI formed a higher low, a bullish divergence often seen near the end of downtrends; the token is down almost 50% over the past three months. If PENGU breaks above the wedge’s upper trend line, the pattern projects a potential move of up to 75%, though structure alone does not guarantee follow‑through.

On‑chain data shows whales increased holdings by 23.6% in 24 hours, lifting whale‑controlled supply to roughly 1.13 billion tokens, while smart money and exchange balances remained largely flat—suggesting the push is concentrated among large holders, per Nansen. Social sentiment has collapsed by roughly 95% to around 1.5 from highs above 11 in mid‑January, according to Santiment, removing broad crowd support.

Derivatives data from Coinglass shows about $3.55 million in longs versus $1.37 million in shorts (roughly 160% more longs), creating liquidation risk if price loses key supports: $0.0122 and $0.0131 are bullish thresholds, while losing $0.010 raises liquidation risk and deeper danger sits near $0.0088–$0.0089.

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