Polymarket places Khamenei removal odds at 56% amid Iran unrest

Beincrypto reports Polymarket traders now place the probability of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being removed as Iran’s Supreme Leader by year‑end at 56%, a surge the outlet says follows the US military’s dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last weekend. The Polymarket probability has risen 21 percentage points in recent days and is being read as market conviction that the 85‑year‑old leader may not survive mounting internal unrest and external pressure.

Iran and Venezuela have close ties — Tehran sent oil tankers to Caracas and the two countries signed a 20‑year cooperation agreement — and the Maduro operation has rattled Tehran, the report says. Protests tied to Iran’s currency collapse now span 88 cities across 27 of the country’s 31 provinces, the US‑based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reports, with at least 34 killed and more than 2,000 arrested; those figures cannot be independently verified.

The piece says Khamenei has dismissed some demonstrators as rioters and foreign‑linked agitators, security forces have deployed paramilitary units and reportedly raided hospitals, and President Trump has twice warned Iran and said it would “pay hell” for killing protesters. Polymarket’s dated markets show January 31 at 22% on $4.3 million in volume, March at 35% on $1.9 million, June at 42% on $1.8 million, and December at 56% on $504,000, a pattern the report interprets as expectations of prolonged instability rather than imminent collapse.

Key Topics

World, Ali Khamenei, Polymarket, Nicolas Maduro, Iran, Hrana