Polymarket scrutinized after high-risk Maduro and Iran bets

Beincrypto reports Polymarket is facing fresh scrutiny after a cluster of high‑risk geopolitical bets prompted concerns that prediction markets are being used to launder information into public narratives. Earlier this month an anonymous wallet reportedly turned a $30,000 bet into more than $400,000 by wagering that Venezuela’s president would be removed from office just hours before US forces captured him.

Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain shows two of the three wallets tied to those Maduro profits have been inactive for 11 days, while a third reappeared to place a new wager predicting Iran’s Supreme Leader would be out of power by January 31. Separate Iran‑related markets also drew heavy stakes: one new account placed a large “Yes” position on a US strike by January 14, pushing odds to 51% and driving nearly $50 million in trading volume before the market resolved “No,” costing that trader roughly $40,000.

Analysts quoted in the coverage say the pattern — sudden large bets, viral odds shifts and rapid reversals — fits a tactic called “information laundering,” in which early wagers are amplified by copy‑traders and social media and then reversed once markets move. Lawmakers are watching: Representative Ritchie Torres has introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to bar certain officials from trading on government‑action markets; the bill has dozens of House co‑sponsors but has not moved to a vote and has no Senate companion.

Key Topics

Crypto, Polymarket, Prediction Markets, Maduro, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ritchie Torres