Prediction Market Sees 75% Chance of US Partial Shutdown; Bitcoin Steady

Beincrypto reports the US federal government is headed toward a partial shutdown, with the prediction market Polymarket showing a 75% probability of a shutdown on January 31 in the Asian morning hours and more than $13.3 million wagered. The impasse stems from Democratic opposition to the Department of Homeland Security funding bill; Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said, “I will vote no on any legislation that funds ICE until it is reined in and overhauled.” If no agreement is reached by midnight on January 30, some federal agencies will cease operations.

Six of the 12 appropriations bills have already been signed into law, with full fiscal‑year funding for Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce and Energy, and DHS holding roughly $178 billion from last year’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." Last October’s full 43‑day shutdown swelled the Treasury General Account to $1 trillion and is estimated to have drained about $700 billion in market liquidity; a partial shutdown is expected to have a far smaller liquidity impact.

A pseudonymous analyst known as "CryptoOracle" had warned during the prior full shutdown that it would "break liquidity first, then fix it later" and forecast a large Bitcoin correction, but that prediction was based on a full shutdown scenario.