Prediction market trading hits record $701.7M despite regulatory scrutiny

Trading on prediction markets reached a record $701.7 million on Monday in the first weeks of 2026, despite recent US regulatory actions seeking to restrict the sector. Dune Analytics data compiled by Gate Research showed Kalshi accounted for two-thirds of the total with $465.9 million, while Polymarket and Opinion together tallied about $100 million.

The $701.7 million figure surpassed the previous record of $666.6 million set the day before. Adoption of prediction markets has accelerated since August, with several crypto exchanges, including Coinbase and Gemini, and self-custody wallets such as MetaMask integrating or planning to integrate prediction services.

The integrations and rising volumes have attracted Wall Street interest, and market leaders Polymarket and Kalshi now boast multibillion-dollar valuations. Prediction markets have also returned to the regulatory spotlight: an anonymous Polymarket user placed roughly $30,000 on Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro being ousted hours before he was captured, a bet that paid out more than $400,000 and raised concerns about insider knowledge.

New York lawmakers are set to review legislation to ban certain markets, and states including Connecticut, New York, Nevada and New Jersey have sought restrictions, prompting legal challenges.

Key Topics

Crypto, Kalshi, Polymarket, Prediction Markets, Nicolas Maduro, New York