Robinhood (HOOD) Faces 40% Downside Risk as Crypto Revenue Falls

Robinhood has rebounded about 23% since its February 5 low near $71, and the company posted its strongest financial year on record with full-year revenue near $4.5 billion (up more than 50% year over year) and net income close to $1.9 billion. Q4 revenue rose 27% and EPS beat expectations, with gains in options trading, interest income and Gold subscriptions.

The firm also launched the public testnet for Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 built on Arbitrum intended as a long-term growth initiative. Despite those gains, crypto remains a drag: crypto revenue fell 38% year over year to about $221 million amid Bitcoin’s pullback and weaker volumes, and Q4 sales missed estimates by roughly $50 million.

The stock slipped about 7% in extended trading after earnings, and price action shows strain after a breakdown below a falling channel on February 2 that preceded a near 30% drop, with $71 serving as the key near-term support. Money-flow and momentum indicators reinforce the cautious outlook.

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