Some full-time prediction-market traders report seven-figure gains

A small cohort of full-time traders on prediction-market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are reporting sizable profits, sometimes into the millions, according to a recent profile. One example is Joel Holsinger, 26, who quit his job as a corporate C.P.A. to trade full time and was two months into that move when he was “well along the road to making his first $100,000.” He livestreamed bets on the White House turkey pardon and placed $2,500 on a market resolving to a single bird, alongside other wagers based on speech-word frequencies; his total profit later surpassed $144,000.

The most successful traders — self-styled “sharps” — combine quick information processing, niche research and coordinated tips in private groups. The profile cites traders who have reported large gains: one who said he made $2.6 million in profits on Polymarket since January 2022, another who said he made $2.5 million since November 2024, and a trader who said he made $1,034,153 in 2025.

The piece also notes concerns about outsized wins: an analysis found fewer than 0.04 percent of addresses on Polymarket account for 70 percent of profits, and some large, rapid wins have prompted suspicions of insider information.

Key Topics

Business, Polymarket, Kalshi, Prediction Markets, Joel Holsinger, Cftc