After three strong years, U.S. stocks face momentum and mounting risks into 2026

The U.S. stock market delivered an "eye‑popping" performance in 2025 — the third consecutive year of double‑digit gains — boosting the wealth of broadly held stock portfolios, the New York Times columnist Jeff Sommer writes. Sommer cites concrete returns: an S&P 500 index fund such as Vanguard’s VOO, including dividends, gained 17.8 percent in 2025 after rises of 25 percent in 2024 and 26.3 percent in 2023, a three‑year compounded increase of 86 percent through December.

Morningstar figures cited in the column show domestic stock funds up 13 percent over 12 months, taxable bond funds up 7.6 percent, international stock funds up 31.4 percent and a range of extreme sector results — precious‑metal stock funds rose 152.8 percent over 12 months while funds focused on digital assets fell 11.5 percent over the year.

At the same time, Sommer warns of significant risks. Geopolitical tensions are high — he notes that stocks of some oil drillers surged even as many investors largely shrugged off President Trump’s order to capture Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces — and he says Mr. Trump’s expansive comments about places such as Greenland, Colombia and Cuba have alarmed allies.

Domestically, the widening budget deficit, the lingering effects of tariffs and richly priced corporate bonds are potential trouble spots. Interest rates have fallen, and Mr.

Key Topics

Business, Voo, Jeff Sommer, Nicolás Maduro, Morningstar