Supreme Court Decision on Trump Tariffs Threatens Markets and Bitcoin

The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of President Trump’s 2025 tariffs, consolidated in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., testing whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act allowed such broad trade measures.

Lower courts twice found against the administration, and the opinion is expected at 10:00 AM ET on February 20, 2026. Prediction markets give a low probability that the court will uphold the tariffs—Polymarket prices roughly a 26% chance and Kalshi about 25.7%.

If upheld, the tariffs would remain in place and could escalate trade tensions; if struck down, importers might be entitled to refunds of duties collected since early 2025. Some commentators have cited a $600 billion revenue claim for the tariffs, but neutral analyses such as the Penn‑Wharton Budget Model put exposure at $133–$179 billion.

United States

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