Tesla faces scrutiny at Q4 earnings as analysts question EV sales and AI timelines
Tesla will report Q4 results after the 4 p.m. closing bell Wednesday, with an analyst call scheduled for about 5:30 p.m. ET, as Wall Street enters the release with mixed views while vehicle sales remain weak and the company’s AI plans continue to take shape. Chinese rival BYD sold more battery-electric cars last year than Tesla, delivering more than 2.26 million vehicles versus Tesla’s 1.65 million, a gap Howard Yu of IMD Business School called the moment “2025 marks the year Tesla lost the BEV crown to BYD.” Even after mid-2025 refreshes to the Model Y and Model 3 — changes that added LED light bars, sharper body angles and interior updates — Tesla’s sales have continued to slide.
The company reported a 16% year-over-year decline in 4Q deliveries, and JPMorgan cut its EPS estimate to $0.43 from $0.48, calling the decline “the worst ever” and reiterating an underweight rating with a $150 price target. Analysts are divided on Tesla’s AI and robotics prospects.
Musk missed several robotaxi targets but Tesla removed safety drivers in Austin and plans further US city launches; UBS warned AI returns could be “further out” and put a sell rating with a $247 target, while Oppenheimer flagged slower-than-anticipated progress and trimmed revenue estimates.
Bullish firms such as Cantor and Wedbush see potential catalysts from expanded robotaxi presence and Optimus commercialization, issuing higher price targets and optimistic forecasts.
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