XRP Shows Early Bounce, History Warns Against Early Optimism
Beincrypto reports XRP fell to $1.11, below its realized price near $1.47, after breaking down from a long-term falling channel. The token has rebounded toward the $1.30 area following a sharp sell-off, which on the surface appears like a strong bounce but echoes past conditions seen near major turning points.
On-chain indicators show stress: long-term holder NUPL is near -0.19, above historic cycle lows around -0.31, while spent-coin activity surged about 150% from roughly 79 million to more than 198 million, signaling ongoing distribution. Historical episodes — including the mid-2022 realized-price breach and over two years of consolidation thereafter — illustrate that such breaks often lead to prolonged stabilization rather than immediate recoveries.
Structurally, XRP remains below its broken channel and the realized price, keeping downside risks elevated with a key support near $0.93 and a farther downside zone near $0.52.