XRP stalls near $2 due to 1.86B sell wall, analysis shows

BeInCrypto analysis: XRP keeps failing to hold rallies near $2 because a concentrated sell wall of roughly 1.86 billion XRP sits between $1.96 and $1.98. XRP briefly touched $2 in early January 2026 but has repeatedly stalled. On the 12-hour chart the key short-term signal is the 20-period exponential moving average (20-EMA).

Reclaims of the 20-EMA only led to sustained rallies when accompanied by strong follow-through volume — notably Jan. 1–6, when a successful reclaim and higher-volume green candles produced about a 28% rally. Other reclaim attempts (Dec. 9, around Dec. 20, and Jan. 28) lacked follow-through and failed.

On-chain cost-basis data shows a major supply cluster at $1.96–$1.98 holding roughly 1.86 billion XRP, creating a heavy supply zone as price moves into it. Exchange outflows supported the early January move (outflows rose from roughly 8.9 million to about 38.5 million XRP), but recent outflows were weaker — briefly about 18.1 million on Jan.

28, then near 5.4 million on Jan. 29 — so buying has not consistently absorbed the wall. Whale accumulation has been modest: wallets holding 10–100 million XRP rose from about 11.03 billion to 11.19 billion since Jan. 21 (around 160 million added), while wallets over 1 billion XRP increased by roughly 30 million.

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