XRP whales sold $800M; smaller whales absorbed supply — price outlook

On-chain data shows large XRP whales sold more than 400 million XRP over the past month — about $800 million at current prices — but most of that supply was absorbed by smaller whale addresses, limiting a broader market shock. Addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion tokens led the selling, while wallets holding between 1 million and 100 million XRP took on the bulk of incoming supply.

Because the tokens stayed within large-cap wallets, broader market supply did not spike and bearish momentum remained limited. Macro indicators back continued long-term conviction: XRP’s Liveliness metric has declined to a three-month low, suggesting long-term holders are HODL-ing rather than selling into weakness.

Historically, falling Liveliness during downtrends reflects accumulation and can compress price volatility. Technically, XRP is trading near $1.90, fluctuating between resistance at $1.93 and support at $1.86 after breaking out of a descending wedge that had constrained price since early June.

The wedge projects an 11.7% upside to $2.10, though reclaiming $2.00 is the more realistic near-term bullish objective. Downside risks remain: if XRP fails to decisively breach $1.93, selling pressure could intensify, and a drop below $1.86 would likely push price toward the $1.79 support zone, which would invalidate the bullish thesis.

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