Year‑high whale metric raises risk of Bitcoin slide to $60,000

Bitcoin has traded almost flat near $67,600 while posting a roughly 27% drop over the past 30 days. The market has already broken down from a bear flag pattern that carried about a 40% crash risk, and the recent pause may be a temporary hold before further declines.

The Exchange Whale Ratio spiked to 0.81 on February 14, its highest reading in a year. Similar spikes previously preceded short rallies as whales positioned early, then heavy selling followed — for example, a 0.62 spike in March 2025 around $84,100 was followed by a brief rise to $87,200 and a later fall to $76,200, and a 0.70 spike in November near $88,400 led to a quick rally to $93,000 before a drop to $86,000.

The ratio remains elevated at 0.65, and a hidden bearish divergence on the 12‑hour RSI points toward continued pullback risk. Whale address counts also declined: addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more fell from 1,959 on January 22 to 1,939, a loss of 20 addresses during the correction, indicating distribution rather than accumulation.

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