The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update - English - May 2023

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued by the World Meteorological Organization in collaboration with the WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres. The Update provides a synthesis of temperature predictions for the period 2023-2027. • There is 66% chance that annual global surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years • There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of next five years will be warmest on record • El Niño and climate change will likely combine to fuel global temperature increase • Arctic heating is predicted to be more than three times higher than the global average World Meteorological Organization