Why Pakistan has a Failed Foreign Policy @MaTurEMiNds

Pakistan has good diplomats but an underperforming diplomacy. And the reasons are many. Where does the main fault lie? Not necessarily with the diplomats as they do not make policy; politicians do. And political leadership, not just in Pakistan but all over the world, blends the interests of the ruling establishment with the national interest. Thus for better or worse the foreign policy that emerges carries more than the imprimatur of a country’s diplomats. In Pakistan the problem is more acute as the leadership factors in not only its own interests but also Pakistan’s economic weaknesses and its external dependence. And that ends up narrowing Pakistan’s foreign policy options making it fall back, partly out of desperation and partly due to nostalgia and wishful thinking, on Pakistan’s traditional alliances and the ‘halcyon’ days of its foreign policy. Pakistan then gets stuck in faulty assumptions about the world we live in, limiting or distorting our understanding of complex foreign policy challenges facing us. Conspiracy theories are the other side of the coin of faulty assumptions. All this has come to undermine Pakistan’s diplomacy. Invariably some of these assumptions have been picked up by the media, especially the electronic media, for their emotional value and the potential to be a good story. That has affected the quality of public debates on foreign policy further hurting the process of foreign policymaking in the country. So diplomats are not to blame — at least they are not the only ones to blame-for the underperformance of Pakistan’s diplomacy. There is no better example of faulty assumptions than how Pakistan sees American policies in the region. Pakistan continues to see American interests and relationships in South Asia like during the cold war. It cannot somehow wean itself away from the false pride of having once been a ‘preferred’ ally of Washington compared to India. The strategic community and political leadership alike are disappointed that the US is now according India a ‘preferential’ treatment. It is only fair that India and Pakistan are treated equally, they complain. TV anchors and analysts express it more dramatically with emotionally charged phrases like “the US has gone over to India” — implying either a betrayal or policy failure by the US. This kind of terminology frames the debate wrongly leading us to wrong analysis. The US has not ‘gone over” to India nor is it giving a ‘preferential’ treatment to India. The fact is that Washington had all through the history of its involvement in South Asia followed its India and Pakistan relations in two separate tracks. So it is not a question of the US having abandoned Pakistan and ‘gone over’ to India. The word ‘preferential’ is also wrong. Preference would have been a right expression if Pakistan and India were being sought for an identical role and were equally qualified, but Washington picked India. That would have been preferential. It was not true or relevant in the past, and inconceivable now. The reality is that South Asia has changed. The major drivers of change have been the end of the cold war, the rise of globalisation, the global Islamic revivalism and the post-9/11 US engagement in the region. The region has come to present economic opportunities, strategic challenges and security threats like the threat of terrorism and extremism as never before. Along with these changes has come the phenomenal rise of China. India too has registered impressive economic and technological progress. The US, through its extraordinary new relationship with India, hopes to contain the Chinese power and influence in the region and beyond, and seek Pakistan’s cooperation in meeting the security threats. American interests in India are much broader and strategic while with Pakistan they are tactical and limited. Of course, one relationship affects the other and it is quite legitimate for Pakistanis to talk about it. But to keep comparing the two relationships or looking for the meaning of one in the other or to consider them zero sum in that the gain by India is a loss by Pakistan is misguided. Pakistan suffers from another faulty assumption of possibly becoming once again a bridge between the US and China. The fact is the US-China tensions are unfolding in full public view and if they are resolved that will be an open secret. The two countries can — and do — talk directly. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi just had marathon talks in Bali on the sidelines of the recent G20 meeting. These were preceded by a video exchange between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen which was described as “constructive”.